Experts warn Jasmine Crockett will have a hard time winning the general election in November.

In a race where “electability” is a key issue for Democratic voters, Rep. Jasmine Crockett claimed several times that she doesn’t need to persuade voters to win in Texas, but experts warn that this line of thinking could seriously affect her viability as a statewide candidate in November’s midterm election.

While Crockett argues that her campaign can succeed by mobilizing infrequent voters and expanding the Democratic electorate, experts say Texas’s political math requires persuading swing voters and peeling off support from Republicans — groups they believe Crockett may struggle to reach. Several strategists have emphasized that successful statewide campaigns in Texas require both energizing the Democratic base and persuading independents and moderate Republicans, arguing that Crockett appears stronger at the former than the latter.

In reporting by The Texas Tribune, Democratic pollsters and party veterans have also expressed concern that Crockett’s high name recognition is a double-edged sword. They note that Crockett is already well known among Republican voters and many of them view her unfavorably, an implicit warning that Crockett’s candidacy could energize Republican turnout in a midterm election year, rather than suppress it, and undermine Democratic hopes in a state that Donald Trump carried by nearly 14 percentage points in 2024.

Republicans have openly welcomed Crockett’s entry into the race, signaling they view her as a favorable opponent. Sen. John Cornyn, who could face Crockett in November if he survives the GOP primary, described her candidacy as a “gift.” Republican operatives echoed that sentiment, and internal Republican polling found Crockett’s image underwater in battleground areas, reinforcing concerns among Democratic insiders that her nomination could complicate efforts to win statewide—and protect down-ballot candidates—in 2026.